Bitcoin to $180K? Expect a 30% correction, VanEck warns

Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, presented detailed forecasts for the cryptocurrency market through 2025.

Sigel predicted Friday this Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $180,000 in the first quarter before experiencing a correction. The analysis projects Ethereum (ETH) exceeding $6,000, while pieces like Solana (GROUND) and Sui (SUI) could bring in $500 and $10 respectively.

Sigel predicts that this initial spike will be followed by a market correction, with Bitcoin falling 30% and altcoins seeing larger declines of up to 60% over the summer months.

To identify potential market tops, Sigel highlights several key indicators that investors should watch. Research considers maintaining high funding rates to be a crucial signal.

He noted that when traders consistently pay funding rates above 10% for three months or more to bet on Bitcoin prices rising, it generally indicates excessive speculation in the market.

The analysis also highlights the importance of tracking unrealized profits among Bitcoin holders. When a large portion of holders maintain paper gains with a profit-to-cost ratio above 70%, it often signals market euphoria.

Another critical indicator is Bitcoin’s market dominance. Sigel warns that a drop below 40% could signal excessive speculation in altcoins, typical of late-cycle market behavior.

The study attributes current market dynamics largely to Donald Trump’s election victory and his administration’s planned appointments. The expected pro-crypto leadership team, including JD Vance as vice chairman and Paul Atkins as SEC chairman, suggests moving from previous restrictive policies to a framework that positions Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

After the summer correction, Sigel predicts a market recovery in fall 2025. Major cryptocurrencies will likely return to their previous all-time highs by the end of the year.

This projection assumes continued institutional adoption and favorable regulatory developments under the new administration.

This market outlook provides investors with specific price targets and warning signals to watch for, while recognizing the impact of political developments on the crypto market.