Polymarket users forecast PM Trudeau’s resignation by Jan. 10

Oddsmakers at Polymarket predicted Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would resign by the end of the week, but local media believe his departure could come sooner.

Canadian newspapers The Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail published articles predicting Trudeau’s resignation between January 6 and 8, while Polymarket users placed their bets on January 10. Reports indicate that Trudeau has not yet made a final decision on when he will leave.

The Toronto Star reported that Trudeau could resign on Monday January 6, contesting The Globe and Mail initial scoop. According to the Globe and Mail, the Prime Minister should announce his resignation just before a scheduled Liberal Party meeting on Wednesday, January 8.

According to Polymarket odds, Trudeau’s resignation will likely come by the end of the week. Data from the platform shows there is an 82% chance he will resign by Friday, January 10, and a 72% chance it will be announced on January 8. Users consider January 6 the least likely date for his resignation, with a probability of only 26%.

Polymarket’s relevance in political outcomes was catapulted last year, bolstered by popular deals tied to the US general election. Its users accurately predicted a victory for President Donald Trump, earning the FBI scrutiny on Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan and a DOJ investigation into suspected Participation of American users.

Coplan’s Polygon-based protocol has become a hotbed for election betting, generating over $9 billion in trading volume across multiple contracts.