Polymarket, Kalshi bettors expect TikTok ban: But when?

Cryptocurrency prediction markets show high chances that TikTok will be banned in the United States by May 2025.

According to the latest information, the main platforms Polymarket And Kalchi both show a high probability that the ByteDance-owned app will be shut down.

Polymarket data shows a 79% probability of a TikTok ban, with trading volume reaching $5.6 million. Similarly, Kalshi predicts a probability of 89%, with $2.23 million in bets. Both platforms have seen a sharp increase in these probabilities since the beginning of January 2025.

Prediction markets work similarly to stock exchanges, where users can buy contracts based on actual outcomes. In this case, traders will receive payments if TikTok “is banned from downloading and/or use by the majority of Americans” before April 30.

The high trading volumes suggest strong market belief in the likelihood of a ban.

The current situation arises from legislation which comes into force on Sunday. However, President Biden has declared that he will not apply it on his last day in office. That means the new Trump administration will have the authority to extend the ban for 90 days once it takes office on Monday.

The potential ban has attracted the attention of several people, including prominent YouTuber MrBeast, who has expressed interest in acquiring TikTok to prevent its ban.

In a recent tweet, he claimed to have received contacts from several billionaires regarding a possible acquisition effort. However, the feasibility of such an approach remains unclear.

“Shark Tank” host Kevin O’Leary and former Los Angeles Dodgers owner Frank McCourt have also expressed interest in purchasing the platform’s U.S. operations.

The high confidence of prediction markets in a ban also recently shows growing concerns about the future of TikTok in the United States. radius to Chinese President Xi Jinping and discussed various topics, including TikTok.

Trump also posted on Truth Social that the Supreme Court’s decision upholding the law on the sale or ban of TikTok was expected.

“My decision regarding TikTok will be made in the not too distant future, but I must have time to review the situation,” Trump said.