Trump’s executive order could break Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle: Bitwise CIO

The executive decree of American president Donald Trump on Crypto, coupled with a global regulatory pivot in the United States, could break the cycle of four years of Bitcoin.

This is the point of view of Matt Hougan, director of investments at Asset Manager. The Bitwise executive shared its prospects in a note Posted on January 29.

“More specifically, I wondered if the recent change in the attitude of Washington to the crypto is a catalyst sufficiently important to” break “the four-year cycle and extend the current crypto upper market in 2026 and beyond” , wrote Hougan.

Cycle of four years of Bitcoin

Historically, Bitcoin (BTC) followed a four -year cycle, with three years of generally upward movement in a bull market, followed by a decline. This model took place in 2014 after the collapse of Mont Gox, in 2018 in the ICO repression of Securities and Exchange, and in 2022 after the collapse of the Terra.

In this case, the 2022 bear market paved the way for a “large 2023 and 2024”.

“If we follow the classic four -year cycle, 2025 would be an excellent year for the crypto. And I think that will be the case: we are on the record to predict that the price of Bitcoin will double this year at more than $ 200,000, driven by flows in ETFs and Bitcoin purchases by companies and governments. This can be conservative, ”noted Hougan.

The current crypto cycle, coming after the painful withdrawal which saw the feeling of contagion decimation, obtained its catalyst for Grayscale’s victory against the dry.The legal victory accelerated the possible approval of the FNB Bitcoin Spot in the United States

The BTC price increased from around $ 22,000 at the time of the Graycale argument against SEC before the court to reach heights of all time above $ 100,000 in 2024.

Trump and the Crypto Executive Order

Trump’s victory in November to become the 47th American president added to this bullish momentum. But could the change of policy in Washington in the context of a pro-Crypto Trump administration could break the four-year cycle of Bitcoin?

Hougan believes it could.

He stresses that the first signs suggest the potential of a painful bear market, following the historic models of excessive use on the overheated markets. However, Trump’s Crypto Executive Decree, signed during the first week of his return to the White House, could change this trajectory.

According to Hougan, the order signals the “full of crypto” in the midst of several other positive developments. A key change is the potential regulatory framework that could allow banks to fully enter the crypto guard market, which strengthens Wall Street’s confidence in digital assets.

Another important factor to consider. Overall, the EO alludes to a scenario that could see thousands of dollars flow into the crypto.

Maybe not in 2026

According to the IBOT IT DSI, the positive effects of Trump’s decree and other factors can take years to materialize. This means that the market cannot exclude another crypto winter in 2026.

“I guess we did not fully overcome the four -year cycle. The lever effect will accumulate as the Haussier market is built. An excess will appear. The bad actors will emerge. And at some point, there could be a lively withdrawal when the market exceeds its skis, ”concluded Hougan.