BTC down 4% but macro pressures and bearish signals point to further decline

The Bitcoin price fell 11% over the weekend according to Trump’s executive order to use the BTC entered for the reserves, while wider macroeconomic pressures and the lower lower technical signals indicate more drawbacks.

On March 7, Donald Trump sign An executive order to use Bitcoin (BTC) Entry of criminal cases for the strategic reserve rather than buying it on the market. The announcement sparked a drop in the price of bitcoin, which opened at $ 90,000 on March 7, but razed about 11% of its value during the weekend, closing at only $ 80,751 on March 9, according to Co Ringecko. However, he has since returned to more than $ 82,000, currently negotiating $ 82,154, down 4% in the last 24 hours.

This market reaction was probably due to unrealistic expectations, because many expected the government to buy BTC, injecting more money on the market. That being said, the prescription has not completely excluded future Bitcoin purchases, but they should be “neutral budget”, without burden for taxpayers.

Beyond disappointments linked to the reserve, the price of bitcoin continues to be pressed by macro concerns, mainly linked to price. More specifically, the trade war between the United States and China is intensifying, with Beijing imposing Prices on certain American agricultural goods as reprisals for the recent increase in Trump of Chinese import rights. In addition, the president of the federal reserve, Jerome Powell, confirmed on Friday that the central bank would hold a Interest rate waiting approach. It came after a weak we Non -agricultural pay report And expectations of at least three Fed rate drops this year.

On the technical side, the analyst of the graph Peter Brandt highlighted That the price of Bitcoin completed a double model, with peaks at around $ 108,100. After having culminated, it broke down under the key support (previous beach) nearly 95,321–96,659. After the break, the price formed a lower price (a consolidation model), which retested the breakdown area around 95,321–96 659) but failed to recover it. The pennant ended and the price broke, signaling the descent more. The support at 81,513 is now the critical level. If it is broken, another decline will probably follow.

If the price falls below this level, it could cause approximately $ 1.3 billion long liquidations with leverage, according to Linen data. Such a massive outpouring will undoubtedly lead to a strong drop in the price.

Arthur Hayes recent analysis Can offer an overview of what could happen next. In his recent post on X, he said that Bitcoin is likely to remember the level of $ 78,000, and if that does not hold, $ 75,000 could be the next target. He added that many investors have placed options around the price range from $ 70,000 to $ 75,000. “If we are entering this range, it will be violent,” he said.

The silver lining

On the right side, some experts believe that the news of the Bitcoin reserve are optimistic in the long term and that the reaction of the market to the new consisting in lost BTC (at least in the near future) was the result of swollen expectations. As Matt Hougan, an investment director at Bitwise Asset Management, said to CNBC “The market is disappointed in the short term” that the government has not said that it would immediately start acquiring 100,000 or 200,000 bitcoin, he added. Hougan pointed out tsar ai Declaration by David Sacks on xWho said that the United States is looking for “budgetary neutral strategies to acquire additional bitcoin, provided that these strategies do not have additional costs on American taxpayers”.

Another positive development (although a minor compared to macro opposite winds) is that Bitcoin holder portfolios have cumulatively accumulated nearly 5,000 BCT since March 3, according to Simple. Although prices are not yet reflected, if the whales continue to accumulate, the second half of March could be better than the “bloodbath” that the market has seen since BTC has reached its new $ 100,000 peak 7 weeks ago, health analysts said.