Bitcoin’s next big move hinges on the U.S. labor market data, says analyst

Bitcoin moves with macro conditions. If the United States’s work data reports weakness, the Fed can intervene – potentially pushing higher Bitcoin.

Bitcoin (BTC) The next decision could supplement the data from the US labor market to come, because macro-conditions continue to shape liquidity and the feeling of risks.

The quantitative analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests that the unemployment rate will be a key factor, predicting that if it remains in the range of 4.1% to 4.2%, Bitcoin could follow the track of last year and come together in February and March. However, too high or too low a rate could create uncertainty, affecting bond yields, political expectations of the federal reserve and, ultimately, the action of bitcoin prices.

The last labor market report, released On January 10, the US unemployment rate had shown slightly 4.1% in December against 4.2% in November. Employment growth has considerably exceeded expectations, with 256,000 jobs added compared to the 153,000 planned. A strong labor market generally reduces the urgency of Fed rate drops, which can weigh on Bitcoin, as higher rates tighten financial conditions.

Recent unemployment claims add to the evolving image. Initial unemployment requests for the week ending on January 25 fell to 207,000, below 220,000 projected.

While layoffs are historically low, hiring has slowed down, reporting that the labor market could cool. If next week’s report confirms this trend, it could raise expectations for monetary softening – typically favorable to risk assets like Bitcoin.

In the midst of this, the Fed, following a total of 100 basic points in the rate decreases since September, recognized that inflation remains somewhat high but opposite To maintain its reference interest rate at 4.25% to 4.50% at its political meeting on January 29.

Political pressure has also entered the photo, with former President Donald Trump criticism The Fed so as not to act more aggressively. Trump put pressure on policies promoting the expansion and deregulation of inner energy, while accusing high inflation on what he calls the poorly placed accent of the Central Bank on social and environmental issues.

In the meantime, the yields of the Treasury have deniedWith the 10 -year yield, yield at 4.526% and 2 -year yield at 4.213%, after growth in GDP of Q4 lower than expected by 2.3% – constitute the forecasts of 2.5%.

The lower yields generally benefit Bitcoin by softening financial conditions and reducing competition from traditional assets. However, a stronger than expected job report could push higher yields, strengthen the dollar and make risk assets less attractive.

Bitcoin, a merchant at $ 104,000 to date, is at a critical time. If the job market remains stable but shows signs of cooling, it could provide the ideal backdrop for a rally, reflecting the trend of last year. However, a strong deviation in both directions could introduce volatility.